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Post by michaelefc on May 11, 2019 20:21:06 GMT
PS If we are going to be really silly, would somebody like to argue that Man Utd and Liverpool don't have a clear bias when they are playing, especially at home? I'd love to hear someone argue that one!
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Post by unknownquantity on May 12, 2019 14:29:23 GMT
I am clear on certain facts
1) That the first penalty kick taken by Salford was the worst of all the kicks taken on Sunday. In fact I believe that it was the only penalty that was off target.
2) I think the fact that the reason why people say there have been more penalty shoot outs won by the team taking first kick is that the team shooting second are that the team shooting second. On Sunday as a result of missing the first penalty Salford were playing catch up for at least half of the shoot out.
3) Personally I know the measures that statisticians use in analysing data such as sampling methods, size of sample, standard errors, percentages and confidence intervals so I feel I can make my own judgement on what I feel constitutes a statistically significant result.
4) On the internet the competitions where the penalty shoot outs are most comprehensively analysed are the European Championships and the World Cups where in both instances you can scroll down and look at the results of all penalty shoot outs, the names of the takers, whether they scored or missed and who took first kick. In the former the team shooting second won 11 out of 19, and in the latter 15 out of 30. However interestingly enough I believe that all six shoot outs in the 2018 World Cup were won by the team shooting second.
On the subject of ends I think it is not always easy to classify things. I went to the Swindon match and I think most of the Eastleigh contingent were seated at the side which meant that if a penalty shoot out was required there would have been very few Eastleigh supporters behind either goal. As for the Salford match I think those who actually attended are better placed to comment, but I would have thought that although there was a large contingent of Eastleigh followers who witnessed a great performance from their team they still represented less than one eighth of the people at the game and so I expect there may have been some home fans at both ends.
Sorry if I have bored some people, but I just wanted to put the record straight as far as it is possible to do.
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Post by unknownquantity on May 12, 2019 18:18:56 GMT
Just as a slight amendment to my last post whereas the last six penalty shoot outs in World Cup finals tournaments have been won by the team kicking second the first two of these were in fact in 2014.
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