Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2016 10:45:26 GMT
I pinched this from another forum, its very good.
WARNING - LONG READ!
I posted this on our forum, hopefully someone here finds it interesting:
SO, after yesterday's result we have 8 games remaining. Others around us have a/a few game(s) in hand, but if we ignore the top 3 who are probably out of sight and assured of a playoff spot, there are looking like 8 sides fighting for 2 spots: Tranmere, Braintree, Wrexham, Dover, Eastleigh, Gateshead, Lincoln and Bromley. Anyone further down than Bromley would still be at least 9 points behind us even after winning any games in hand and with 8 games to play, I would think that would be too much to make up.
Looking at these 8 sides, there are obvious 'holders', 'favourites' and 'outsiders'. Currently in 4th and 5th, Tranmere and Braintree are the current 'holders' - the teams in possession of the last 2 spots and the teams all the others are looking to overtake. There are plenty of ways to look at who the favourites and outsiders are, but to me the most important are Points/Goals Scored/Goals Conceded per game, Form and Difficulty of remaining games. So, let's look at them each in turn and give each side a ‘Contender Rank’ from 1 to 8 (1 being the best and 8 being the worst).
Current Points:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 62 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 3
5th: Braintree Town = 61 points (1.7 points per game) Contender Rank: 1
6th: Wrexham = 59 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 4
7th: Dover = 59 points (1.7 points per game) Contender Rank: 2
8th: Eastleigh = 59 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 5
9th: Gateshead = 58 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 6
10th: Lincoln = 56 points (1.5 points per game) Contender Rank 7
11th: Bromley = 54 points (1.5 points per game) Contender Rank 8
So, Braintree and Dover have the largest points per game average. Of the 4 sides on 1.6 points per game, Tranmere have the most already on the board, which could be critical for the run in. Bromley and Lincoln have the lowest points per game average and lowest points on the board, so they’ve got the most work to do.
Goals scored:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 50 Goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 6
5th: Braintree Town= 41 Goals (1.2 goals per game) Contender Rank: 8
6th: Wrexham = 61 Goals (1.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 1
7th: Dover Athletic = 59 Goals (1.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 2
8th: Eastleigh = 54 Goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 5
9th: Gateshead = 48 Goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 7
10th: Lincoln = 57 Goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 4
11th: Bromley = 60 Goals (1.6 goals per game) Contender Rank: 3
Going forwards, Wrexham and Dover have the most potent attacks with 1.7 goals per game. Tranmere, Gateshead and Braintree are all putting a lot of pressure on their defences to keep them in the games as they don’t score as often as the rest of the contenders.
Goals conceded:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 37 goals (1.0 goals per game) Contender Rank: 2
5th: Braintree Town = 26 goals (0.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 1
6th: Wrexham = 44 goals (1.2 goals per game) Contender Rank: 3
7th: Dover Athletic = 45 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 4
8th: Eastleigh = 48 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 6
9th: Gateshead = 55 goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 7
10th: Lincoln = 47 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 5
11th: Bromley = 58 goals (1.6 goals per game) Contender Rank: 8
At the back, Braintree and Tranmere are the hardest sides to break down and are the only sides not to concede over 1 goal per game. Their respective attacks put a lot of pressure on their defences, but in fairness they live up to that expectation. Bromley, Gateshead and Eastleigh are the easiest to break down and are likely to need a lot of goals to win games, which could hinder them.
Ignoring the top 3, who are gone, going on points per game/goals per game/goals conceded per game until the end of the season, it would look like this:
-------TEAM--PTS--GF--GA--GD
4th Braintree--80--55--32--+23
5th Dover --78--78--60--+18
-------------------------------------
6th Tranmere --75--60--46--+14
7th Eastleigh -- 75--69--60--+9
8th Wrexham -- 73--78--55--+23
9th Gateshead -- 72--60--69---9
10th Lincoln --70--69--60--+9
11th Bromley --67--74--74--0
So, in short, it's looking like we won't make it on the points/goals scored/goals conceded per game. However, it's looking very tight and a bad defeat or a couple of draws for Dover or Braintree could put it back in our hands. But how likely are those results? Let’s take a look at the current Form and remaining fixtures of the 8 sides and give them a Contender Rank accordingly.
Form:
The number of games remaining fluctuates from between 8 and 11, so let’s take the form of the 8 sides across the previous 10 for a rough comparison.
4th Tranmere W6D3L1 Pts=21/30 Contender Rank: 2
5th Braintree W6D3L1 Pts=21/30 Contender Rank: 1
6th Wrexham W5D4L1 Pts=19/30 Contender Rank: 3
7th Dover W5D1L4 Pts=16/30 Contender Rank 5
8th Eastleigh W3D2L5 Pts=11/30 Contender Rank 8
9th Gateshead W5D2L3 Pts=17/30 Contender Rank: 4
10th Lincoln W4D3L3 Pts=15/30 Contender Rank 7
11th Bromley W5D1L4 Pts=16/30 Contender Rank 6
‘Holders’ Tranmere and Braintree are sitting top of the form table having both taken 21 points from the last 30 available. (Braintree are ranked 1 due to a better goal difference). Eastleigh, Lincoln and Bromley come into the run in with the worst 10 game form of the 8 sides and will need to improve significantly if they are to be successful.
Remaining Opposition:
We know how the sides are faring going into the run in, but who do they all play? I will look at the league position of the sides left to play for each of the contenders, with a lower average being deemed ‘harder’ than a higher average (although sides at the bottom can be fighting for their lives, the teams are at the bottom for a reason and for the purposes of this analysis will be deemed more desirable opponents than sides further up the table).
4th Tranmere: 2nd, 10th, 24th, 23rd, 22nd, 6th, 8th, 3rd. Average: 12th. Contender Rank: 4
5th Braintree: 9th, 1st, 11th, 15th, 12th, 14th, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 6th, 21st. Average: 9th. Contender Rank: 7.
6th Wrexham (appears to be a game yet to be rearranged): 16th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 4th, 5th, 14th. Average:7th. Contender Rank: 8.
7th Dover: 10th, 18th, 22nd, 19th, 20th, 21st, 6th, 12th, 3rd, 24th, 2nd. Average: 14th. Contender Rank: 2.
8th Eastleigh: 11th, 20th, 23rd, 22nd, 18th, 3rd, 14th, 21st, 4th, 13th. Average: 15th. Contender Rank: 1.
9th Gateshead: 5th, 23rd, 12th, 10th, 22nd, 13th, 5th, 11th, 16th. Average: 13th. Contender Rank: 3.
10th Lincoln: 7th, 24th, 4th, 9th, 11th, 16th, 17th, 13th, 1st. Average: 11th. Contender Rank: 6
11th Bromley: 8th, 14th, 5th, 2nd, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 9th, 15th. Average: 12th. Contender Rank: 5
As you can see, Eastleigh and Dover have the most desirable fixtures remaining, with opposition averaging a mid-table 15th and 14th respectively. On the flipside, Wrexham and Braintree would need some remarkable form to beat teams with an average position approaching the playoffs until the end of the season.
Overall, there are various different factors that will go into deciding which sides get into the playoffs and which sides fall short. By combining the total ‘Contender Ranks’ of the 8 sides, we get the following totals (as in Golf, lowest number is best):
4th Tranmere: Overall Contender Rank = 17.
5th Braintree: Overall Contender Rank = 18
6th Wrexham: Overall Contender Rank = 19
7th Dover: Overall Contender Rank = 15
8th Eastleigh: Overall Contender Rank = 25
9th Gateshead: Overall Contender Rank = 27
10th Lincoln: Overall Contender Rank = 29
11th Bromley: Overall Contender Rank = 30.
In conclusion, then, it would appear that Dover and Tranmere are the current favourites to make it into the playoffs and the 0-0 draw between the two yesterday suggests there is little between the sides. Braintree and Wrexham aren’t far behind and both have an excellent chance of making it should one of the 2 favourites falter. Eastleigh and Gateshead have a chance, but it would need quite a swing in form for them to do so and their results against the other contenders would probably be considered ‘must win’. Lincoln and Bromley have a mathematical chance, but it doesn’t stretch much further than that and they would need to win almost, if not all, their remaining games to achieve this.
Predicted final positions:
4th Dover
5th Tranmere
-----------------------
6th Braintree
7th Wrexham
8th Eastleigh
9th Gateshead
10th Lincoln
11th Bromley.
Therefore, yes, we will make the playoffs (hopefully).
WARNING - LONG READ!
I posted this on our forum, hopefully someone here finds it interesting:
SO, after yesterday's result we have 8 games remaining. Others around us have a/a few game(s) in hand, but if we ignore the top 3 who are probably out of sight and assured of a playoff spot, there are looking like 8 sides fighting for 2 spots: Tranmere, Braintree, Wrexham, Dover, Eastleigh, Gateshead, Lincoln and Bromley. Anyone further down than Bromley would still be at least 9 points behind us even after winning any games in hand and with 8 games to play, I would think that would be too much to make up.
Looking at these 8 sides, there are obvious 'holders', 'favourites' and 'outsiders'. Currently in 4th and 5th, Tranmere and Braintree are the current 'holders' - the teams in possession of the last 2 spots and the teams all the others are looking to overtake. There are plenty of ways to look at who the favourites and outsiders are, but to me the most important are Points/Goals Scored/Goals Conceded per game, Form and Difficulty of remaining games. So, let's look at them each in turn and give each side a ‘Contender Rank’ from 1 to 8 (1 being the best and 8 being the worst).
Current Points:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 62 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 3
5th: Braintree Town = 61 points (1.7 points per game) Contender Rank: 1
6th: Wrexham = 59 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 4
7th: Dover = 59 points (1.7 points per game) Contender Rank: 2
8th: Eastleigh = 59 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 5
9th: Gateshead = 58 points (1.6 points per game) Contender Rank: 6
10th: Lincoln = 56 points (1.5 points per game) Contender Rank 7
11th: Bromley = 54 points (1.5 points per game) Contender Rank 8
So, Braintree and Dover have the largest points per game average. Of the 4 sides on 1.6 points per game, Tranmere have the most already on the board, which could be critical for the run in. Bromley and Lincoln have the lowest points per game average and lowest points on the board, so they’ve got the most work to do.
Goals scored:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 50 Goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 6
5th: Braintree Town= 41 Goals (1.2 goals per game) Contender Rank: 8
6th: Wrexham = 61 Goals (1.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 1
7th: Dover Athletic = 59 Goals (1.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 2
8th: Eastleigh = 54 Goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 5
9th: Gateshead = 48 Goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 7
10th: Lincoln = 57 Goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 4
11th: Bromley = 60 Goals (1.6 goals per game) Contender Rank: 3
Going forwards, Wrexham and Dover have the most potent attacks with 1.7 goals per game. Tranmere, Gateshead and Braintree are all putting a lot of pressure on their defences to keep them in the games as they don’t score as often as the rest of the contenders.
Goals conceded:
4th: Tranmere Rovers = 37 goals (1.0 goals per game) Contender Rank: 2
5th: Braintree Town = 26 goals (0.7 goals per game) Contender Rank: 1
6th: Wrexham = 44 goals (1.2 goals per game) Contender Rank: 3
7th: Dover Athletic = 45 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 4
8th: Eastleigh = 48 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 6
9th: Gateshead = 55 goals (1.5 goals per game) Contender Rank: 7
10th: Lincoln = 47 goals (1.3 goals per game) Contender Rank: 5
11th: Bromley = 58 goals (1.6 goals per game) Contender Rank: 8
At the back, Braintree and Tranmere are the hardest sides to break down and are the only sides not to concede over 1 goal per game. Their respective attacks put a lot of pressure on their defences, but in fairness they live up to that expectation. Bromley, Gateshead and Eastleigh are the easiest to break down and are likely to need a lot of goals to win games, which could hinder them.
Ignoring the top 3, who are gone, going on points per game/goals per game/goals conceded per game until the end of the season, it would look like this:
-------TEAM--PTS--GF--GA--GD
4th Braintree--80--55--32--+23
5th Dover --78--78--60--+18
-------------------------------------
6th Tranmere --75--60--46--+14
7th Eastleigh -- 75--69--60--+9
8th Wrexham -- 73--78--55--+23
9th Gateshead -- 72--60--69---9
10th Lincoln --70--69--60--+9
11th Bromley --67--74--74--0
So, in short, it's looking like we won't make it on the points/goals scored/goals conceded per game. However, it's looking very tight and a bad defeat or a couple of draws for Dover or Braintree could put it back in our hands. But how likely are those results? Let’s take a look at the current Form and remaining fixtures of the 8 sides and give them a Contender Rank accordingly.
Form:
The number of games remaining fluctuates from between 8 and 11, so let’s take the form of the 8 sides across the previous 10 for a rough comparison.
4th Tranmere W6D3L1 Pts=21/30 Contender Rank: 2
5th Braintree W6D3L1 Pts=21/30 Contender Rank: 1
6th Wrexham W5D4L1 Pts=19/30 Contender Rank: 3
7th Dover W5D1L4 Pts=16/30 Contender Rank 5
8th Eastleigh W3D2L5 Pts=11/30 Contender Rank 8
9th Gateshead W5D2L3 Pts=17/30 Contender Rank: 4
10th Lincoln W4D3L3 Pts=15/30 Contender Rank 7
11th Bromley W5D1L4 Pts=16/30 Contender Rank 6
‘Holders’ Tranmere and Braintree are sitting top of the form table having both taken 21 points from the last 30 available. (Braintree are ranked 1 due to a better goal difference). Eastleigh, Lincoln and Bromley come into the run in with the worst 10 game form of the 8 sides and will need to improve significantly if they are to be successful.
Remaining Opposition:
We know how the sides are faring going into the run in, but who do they all play? I will look at the league position of the sides left to play for each of the contenders, with a lower average being deemed ‘harder’ than a higher average (although sides at the bottom can be fighting for their lives, the teams are at the bottom for a reason and for the purposes of this analysis will be deemed more desirable opponents than sides further up the table).
4th Tranmere: 2nd, 10th, 24th, 23rd, 22nd, 6th, 8th, 3rd. Average: 12th. Contender Rank: 4
5th Braintree: 9th, 1st, 11th, 15th, 12th, 14th, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 6th, 21st. Average: 9th. Contender Rank: 7.
6th Wrexham (appears to be a game yet to be rearranged): 16th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 7th, 4th, 5th, 14th. Average:7th. Contender Rank: 8.
7th Dover: 10th, 18th, 22nd, 19th, 20th, 21st, 6th, 12th, 3rd, 24th, 2nd. Average: 14th. Contender Rank: 2.
8th Eastleigh: 11th, 20th, 23rd, 22nd, 18th, 3rd, 14th, 21st, 4th, 13th. Average: 15th. Contender Rank: 1.
9th Gateshead: 5th, 23rd, 12th, 10th, 22nd, 13th, 5th, 11th, 16th. Average: 13th. Contender Rank: 3.
10th Lincoln: 7th, 24th, 4th, 9th, 11th, 16th, 17th, 13th, 1st. Average: 11th. Contender Rank: 6
11th Bromley: 8th, 14th, 5th, 2nd, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 9th, 15th. Average: 12th. Contender Rank: 5
As you can see, Eastleigh and Dover have the most desirable fixtures remaining, with opposition averaging a mid-table 15th and 14th respectively. On the flipside, Wrexham and Braintree would need some remarkable form to beat teams with an average position approaching the playoffs until the end of the season.
Overall, there are various different factors that will go into deciding which sides get into the playoffs and which sides fall short. By combining the total ‘Contender Ranks’ of the 8 sides, we get the following totals (as in Golf, lowest number is best):
4th Tranmere: Overall Contender Rank = 17.
5th Braintree: Overall Contender Rank = 18
6th Wrexham: Overall Contender Rank = 19
7th Dover: Overall Contender Rank = 15
8th Eastleigh: Overall Contender Rank = 25
9th Gateshead: Overall Contender Rank = 27
10th Lincoln: Overall Contender Rank = 29
11th Bromley: Overall Contender Rank = 30.
In conclusion, then, it would appear that Dover and Tranmere are the current favourites to make it into the playoffs and the 0-0 draw between the two yesterday suggests there is little between the sides. Braintree and Wrexham aren’t far behind and both have an excellent chance of making it should one of the 2 favourites falter. Eastleigh and Gateshead have a chance, but it would need quite a swing in form for them to do so and their results against the other contenders would probably be considered ‘must win’. Lincoln and Bromley have a mathematical chance, but it doesn’t stretch much further than that and they would need to win almost, if not all, their remaining games to achieve this.
Predicted final positions:
4th Dover
5th Tranmere
-----------------------
6th Braintree
7th Wrexham
8th Eastleigh
9th Gateshead
10th Lincoln
11th Bromley.
Therefore, yes, we will make the playoffs (hopefully).