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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2016 13:37:56 GMT
I've just knocked up some data to determine whether we will make the play offs or not based on the season thus far. The odds look to be stacked again us, which back up my gut feeling that we are going to miss out and finish 6th or 7th. To match our season last year (4th on 82 points), we need an average of exactly 2 points from each of the remaining 16 games, but the stats show, we are not likely to achieve that, based on season to date, and also the last 10 games separately. Anything less than 2 points P/G and we are really only going to be fighting for the 5th spot at best. Additional to the data below - Of all the teams currently in the top 10, only 3 of those teams have scored fewer goals than us, and only 4 have conceded more than us (and other than Braintree, all of those have played more games than us), so realistically we have conceded more goals per game than all of the top 10 teams.
Season to Date Played 30 Scored 48 Conceded 41 Points 50 Avg Goals P/G Scored 1.6 Avg Goals P/G Conceded 1.4 Average Points P/Game 1.7 Ending Points Total using Avg For Remainder of Season 77 Form Over Last 10 League Games Played 10 Scored 13 Conceded 14 Points 13 Avg Goals P/G Scored 1.3 Avg Goals P/G Conceded 1.4 Average Points P/Game 1.3 Ending Points Total using Avg For Remainder of Season 71 Last Seasons League Table Barnet 92 Bristol Rovers 91 Grimsby Town 86 Eastleigh 82 Forest Green Rovers 79
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Post by Bruce Forbes on Feb 11, 2016 14:31:52 GMT
Mr Sattsy, Yes the odds are stacked against us, but we have had a bad patch (the second of the season). I am convinced that Chris Todd will rally the troops, and take us gloriously into the playoffs! We'll know a lot more after Saturday's result.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2016 14:47:10 GMT
Interesting question as this is something I try to keep an eye on as I like trading the various long term league markets around. Winners, top 4, top 6, relegation etc
Not something I tend to do with the conference though.
If you apply this to ALL teams and take three stand points. Average pts last 5, 10 and 15 games and then apply them to remaining games then this is how the table could end up.
5 game form
CHELTENHAM 1
FOREST GREEN 2
GRIMSBY 3
TRANMERE 4
GATESHEAD 5
BRAINTREE 6
WOKING 7
ALDERSHOT TOWN 8
DOVER 9
MACCLESFIELD 10
LINCOLN 11
WREXHAM 12
EASTLEIGH 13
FC HALIFAX TOWN 14
SOUTHPORT 15
BARROW 16
ALTRINCHAM 17
BROMLEY 18
BOREHAM WOOD 19
GUISELEY AFC 20
CHESTER 21
KIDDERMINSTER 22
WELLING 23
TORQUAY 24
10 Game Form
CHELTENHAM 1
FOREST GREEN 2
GRIMSBY 3
BRAINTREE 4
TRANMERE 5
GATESHEAD 6
WOKING 7
EASTLEIGH 8
DOVER 9
SOUTHPORT 10
MACCLESFIELD 11
FC HALIFAX TOWN 12
ALDERSHOT TOWN 13
WREXHAM 14
LINCOLN 15
BARROW 16
ALTRINCHAM 17
GUISELEY AFC 18
BROMLEY 19
CHESTER 20
BOREHAM WOOD 21
KIDDERMINSTER 22
WELLING 23
TORQUAY 24
15 Game Form
CHELTENHAM 1
FOREST GREEN 2
GRIMSBY 3
BRAINTREE 4
EASTLEIGH 5
TRANMERE 6
DOVER 7
WOKING 8
GATESHEAD 9
MACCLESFIELD 10
WREXHAM 11
SOUTHPORT 12
LINCOLN 13
ALDERSHOT TOWN 14
FC HALIFAX TOWN 15
BARROW 16
GUISELEY AFC 16
CHESTER 18
BROMLEY 19
ALTRINCHAM 20
BOREHAM WOOD 21
WELLING 22
KIDDERMINSTER 23
TORQUAY 24
The 15 Game form would see us in 5th by less than a pt.
If I were trading this market, id be laying us for a top 5 spot.
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Post by westendspitfire on Feb 11, 2016 14:57:42 GMT
If you look at the table the top three are nailed on to finish somewhere in the top 5. After the top 3 there are just 7 points between 4th and 12th, so close that if any one team hits a vein of form it will carry them into the play offs, Tranmere are that team at the moment winning 6 out of 7. In fact if Tranmere continue the run they could have a spot sealed up by the end of Feb so are we fighting for just the one? We have to play all the teams above us, Woking twice and Gateshead, the other 9 fixtures are against lower end teams, not always a good thing at the business end of the season, we could find in April that Guiseley and Altrincham are tougher games then Grimsby and Tramere if the later two are already play off bound. So in summary who the bloody hell knows what could happen we have a third of the season to go and need to get back on form quickly, but if we pick up nine points from our next 6 games we are still in a good position to finish with 80 points and the best way to get into the play offs is on a winning streak with confidence high. Come on You Spitfires!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2016 15:35:39 GMT
If we get 77+ we WILL be in the play offs, and that is probably our target, hitting 77 and see where it leaves us, 4th or 5th I imagine. Every game would now be pressure for the players to achieve that target, but the squad is good enough to do it...GAME ON..
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2016 16:23:32 GMT
Keith - Why do you think 77 will make play offs this year? It would only have been enough once in the last 5 seasons. The last 5 seasons points for 5th place:- 79 Points 77 Points 80 Points 81 Points 78 Points
SS - I think your 10 game analysis is more likely, but interesting stats all the same.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2016 16:55:16 GMT
Keith - Why do you think 77 will make play offs this year? It would only have been enough once in the last 5 seasons. The last 5 seasons points for 5th place:- 79 Points 77 Points 80 Points 81 Points 78 Points SS - I think your 10 game analysis is more likely, but interesting stats all the same. Agree. The 5 form is pointless, but i just use all 3 to see each angle. From a pts point of view, 5th, using same form lines would see pts of 5 games form 83 pts 10 games form 81 pts 15 games for 78 pts
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Post by tenacres on Feb 11, 2016 18:04:04 GMT
I think 80 is the magic number.
Same as last season funny enough when we had 79 going into the last game and needed a point to seal it.
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Post by maysie on Feb 11, 2016 18:43:21 GMT
On current form not going to happen
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Post by loudnproud on Feb 11, 2016 18:47:39 GMT
Yeah well when we stuff the Barrowboys saturday. We will all change our minds
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Post by tenacres on Feb 11, 2016 21:50:44 GMT
"The odds look to be stacked again us" is a bit OTT. The bookies currently have us 4/6 to make the top 5. I think that's a bit short but its hard to see we are too far away from 50-50 land.
Of course a few weeks ago we looked very well placed and our recent poor form has basically meant we've lost the "cushion" we had.
Form can change so quickly and one win would change everything as L&P says above. A 10 or 20 minute spell could turn the season around.
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Post by tenacres on Feb 11, 2016 22:06:45 GMT
Remaining games - 30(?) points needed
Sat 13 Feb 15:00 - (H) Barrow Tue 16 Feb 19:45 - (A) Gateshead Sat 20 Feb 15:00 - (A) Forest Green Tue 1 Mar 19:45 - (H) Cheltenham Sat 5 Mar 15:00 - (A) Braintree
Sat 12 Mar 15:00 - (H) Chester Tue 15 Mar 19:45 - (H) Bromley Sat 19 Mar 15:00 - (A) Halifax Sat 26 Mar 15:00 - (H) Welling Mon 28 Mar 19:45 - (A) Torquay
Sat 2 Apr 15:00 - (H) Guiseley Sat 9 Apr 15:00 - (A) Grimsby Tue 12 Apr 15:00 - (H) Woking Sat 19 Apr 15:00 - (H) Altrincham Sat 26 Apr 15:00 - (H) Tranmere Sat 30 Apr 17:30 - (A) Woking
I think if you look at our next 5 games they are very tough on paper. Obviously Saturday looks the most "winnable" and would give us a good boost going into a difficult set of games.
We've also got a lot of home games there (8 of the last 13), so obviously home form - which has been patchy so far - is vital. Adds further importance to the Barrow game IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 7:14:28 GMT
All difficult away games, but we tend to do well against better sides. If you win 8 of your 9 at home, it leaves you 5 or 6 points short of the 30 required and where are those points on the road? If you look at the bottom 6, we've yet to go to Halifax and Torquay, we drew at Altrincham, Borehamwood and Welling, lost to Kidderminister....9 points lost. This is the second season running we've lost vital points to the bottom 6, but we haul them back against the top sides. I think the fixture list we have will work in our favour, my main worry will be our pitch hurting us unless this rain stops coming. As to my 77+ you missed the + bit, so yeah 80 is the target. I actually put 77 coz my brain was working on the Premier League probably being won with about 84 and got the leagues mixed up!!!! That's my excuse anyway :-)
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Post by michaelefc on Feb 12, 2016 8:21:59 GMT
Beat Barrow and we'll all be convinced we WILL do it, fail to beat Barrow and we'll all be convinced it WON'T happen. So...lets beat Barrow. PS what's the pitch like?
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Post by hantslondoner on Feb 12, 2016 8:27:37 GMT
Looking at the fixtures, it's going to be very tight and will depend on our getting our form back immediately, starting tomorrow.
I wouldn't fancy having to get six points from the last two games, even though both Tranmere and Woking may know their fate by then.
We've got a few re-arranged matches to play, our pitch will continue to suffer under the strain.... but it's the same for most of the other teams in contention.
My feeling is we might just scrape in to the playoffs and hope that FGR rather than Grimsby get second place so that we play them in the semi finals.
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